What the Data Says About the Modesto Real Estate Market
If you're wondering what houses are selling for in Modesto, asking "is it a good time to buy a home in Modesto" or "is it a good time to sell a home in Modesto" then you'll appreciate all the extensive data on the current real estate market in Modesto.
Because this page is updated in real time, you may want to bookmark it (Ctrl + D for Windows, ⌘ + D for Mac) to save for future reference. Or click the button above to sign up for a monthly Market Report update by email!
This page shows three types of data:
If you're thinking about selling your home, we suggest you take a look at local market conditions, and also to get an instant estimate of your property value now:
Marketwide Data From our Local MLS
These reports show statistics for ALL residential properties (single family homes and condos of all sizes) in all areas of town.
This first graph shows three different things:
- GREEN LINE - Average for sale price (also known as list price, or asking price)
- RED LINE - Average sold price
- BLUE GRAPH - Median sold price
As a reminder, MEDIAN PRICE is the price at which 1/2 the properties sold for more and 1/2 sold for less. Think of median price as the mid-line of sale prices.
The AVERAGE PRICE is different: it's the total dollar amount of real estate sold, divided by the number of properties sold. But one really high (or really low) property sale can skew, or distort, the average for a given month. But just because one property sold for $5 million raises the overall average by $8,000 for that month--doesn't mean that every home is worth $8,000 more. For that reason, the median sold price is usually a better indicator of the overall market.
Of course, not all homes go up by the same amount. Obviously, larger homes sell for more than smaller homes and condos. That's where the "Average Price per Sq Ft (Sold)" report can be helpful. Just keep in mind that the avg. $/sq ft varies widely between neighborhoods and individual homes, depending on desirability, upgrades, lot size, property feature, etc.
This next chart shows how long homes are on the market, and how much the home sold for, as a percentage of the original asking price.
Avg CDOM is the average number of "Complete Days On Market" (CDOM) of homes placed for sale, which measures the number of days between when it was first listed for sale, under the seller accepted an offer from a buyer. The hotter the market, the fewer days homes are on the market, on average. When the market slows down, or cools off, the average CDOM will rise.
SP/Orig LP % is the sale price, as a ratio of the original list price. For example, a home originally listed for sale at $500,000 that sells for $500,000 would be a SP/Orig LP % of 100%. But if the seller first listed the property at $510,000 and later sold it for $500,000 then the SP/Orig LP % would be just 98%. Listed at $500,000 and sold for $505,000 would be 101%. Amazingly, the market has been so hot that we've had months recently in which the average home sold for above 100% the original asking price! However, that trend may already be subsiding, based on recent data.
What does it tell us? A low average CDOM means homes are not staying on the market for long, and a high SP/Orig LP % means sellers are getting better offers from buyers. These things indicate a 'strong' market (also called 'hot market' or a 'seller's market') means sellers often have a lot of leverage to get what they want. Whereas a 'weak' market (also called a 'cold market' or a 'buyer's market') means buyers often have a lot of leverage to get concessions from sellers in the form of a lower purchase price, credits toward buyer closing costs, etc.
But let's be honest: this is California! Since about 2013, there hasn't really been a cold/weak/buyer's market. It's been a hot market the entire time. The question really is, "how hot?"
Next up, we have the number of homes available For Sale and Sold, as well as number of homes that "Pended" (went into contract) and New Listings by month. As you can guess, a decline in the number of homes for sale makes it a hotter market, or seller's market in which sellers have more leverage; and an increase in the number of homes for sale makes it a less hot market, in which sellers may need to be a little more cooperative with buyers.
You can see that there's a dip in virtually all market activity in the winter, which usually bottoms out in December or January. Then by around March, and especially around April, a lot more homes go up for sale, more enter contract, and with about a 1-2 month lag, more homes close escrow and are sold.
If you're a homeowner wondering "what is my home worth?" or even "what could my home sell for?" you can enter your address in the box below and get an instant property value now.
If you're a buyer looking at a home for sale and wondering "how much should I offer for this home for sale?" you may also want to get a value estimate on the home before you make an offer on it. Try it out now!
Market Trends from Realtor.com
The following data comes from Realtor.com. Their data source is slightly different, and the data is a little more delayed (typically 2-3 months behind data from our local MLS).
[rg-all-city-Modesto,CA]
Most Recent Market Activity in Modesto
Updated in real time, below is a list of the most recent market activity in three categories: Active (newest on the market), Under Contract, and Sold -- click on any property to see full details, description, location, and photos.
